Half measures

Just days after the legislation was passed, a newspaper has already found 10 loopholes that will allow increased costs for individual's health care.

http://washingtonindependent.com/81064/10-ways-insurance-companies-will-get-out-of-reforming

I've been reading quite a bit of coverage on what the plan will do, what it won't do, and what it doesn't do now but will in up to four years from now (assuming other legislation doesn't stop those parts before they ever start). So far I've yet to see a single concrete improvement.

Boeing has already announced it will take a $150,000,000 charge against its profits due to this legislation. They're already taking over a thousand dollars a year out of my paycheck for my medical plan (which according to our contract should be free); any guesses as to how the executives will make up that $150 million so they don't have to cut their bonuses?

You'll be taxed if you don't have enough health insurance and taxed if you have too much. Don't you just love it when the government decides what's right for you?

And let's not forget the post-Dementor-attack benefit!

Its official: chocolate is good for you!

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/HeartDiseaseNews/chocolate-boasts-blood-pressure-benefits/story?id=10243200

OK, really, small quantities of chocolate daily are better for you than no chocolate... and it only covers reduced risk of high blood pressure, it says nothing about eatings lots of it leading to obesity and its own set of problems...

But still! SCIENCE says chocolate is good for you!!! :-)

Statistics and the Curse of Tippecanoe

For those of you who haven't heard the legend, take a quick look here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_Tippecanoe

Back/never left? OK.

I heard of the curse a long time back (grade school?), but wasn't much interested. A coincidence, nothing more.

Well, I just ran the numbers, and... wow. That'd be quite a coincidence

Bad enough that the first seven candidates for the curse did, in fact, die in office and the eighth came close (the ninth seems to have evaded the curse entirely). What's really disturbing is this: we've only had 8 presidents out of 43 who died in office. That's less than 1 in 5, but the 'curse' has claimed 7 of 9. The odds of seven consecutive hits on those not quite 1 in 5 odds are over 120,000:1.

All four of the presidents who were assassinated (ruling out the poisoning theories for Taylor) were curse candidates. The 8th candidate (Reagan) came quite close indeed to assassination while in office (lost about 1/2 his blood volume and the bullet stopped about an inch from his heart, IIRC).

We've only had ONE president who was NOT a curse candidate die in office - of the 34 non-candidates.

1/34 vs. 7/9. Less than 3% vs. nearly 78%. If as an engineer I was told that a product had failed 8 times, and that 7 of the failures were from a batch of nine, I'd reasonably assume there was something wrong with that batch and recall the other two from that batch. Sure, I'd check for other things (were all of that batch bought by one Wyle E. Coyote?), but I'd expect to find some defect in the manufacture of that batch that wasn't shared by the full production run.

I think there's more evidence that curses get less deadly over time (note that the 1st victim also had the shortest time in office of any US President - less than 31 full days), than there is that there's no curse.

And yes, I know that the 1st rule of statistics is that statistically unlikely events do happen.

This I Believe

Early this morning I looked up American Civil War Army Engineers on the internet and wound up looking at predicted candidates for the 2012 presidential election. Don't you just love wikipedia?

It got me to thinking about why I like or dislike candidates for elected offices.

Although I haven't previously tried to quantify it, I think my decision is based on my assessment on the candidate of three qualities:

1. How much of a politician are they?
2. How much do they agree with me on key issues?
3. How smart are they?

The first one is a bell curve; someone who is completely a politician can't be trusted. They'll sell their soul to win an election, therefore they'll sell their constituents out in a hearbeat. On the flip side, politics is the art of the possible. Someone who doesn't get that won't achieve anything because they'll never get the other politicians to vote for it.

On the second, note "key" issues, and that they are *my* key issues, not whatever the media hotbutton is right now. I would prefer to see marijuana legalized, but I don't really bother reading that part of most candidate's platforms. What are my key issues? Here's another list:

1. Constitutionality
2. Constitutionality
3. Energy policy

Initially that read "individual freedoms" then "states rights" but really, if we just enforced the US Constitution I'd have little to no problem on those issues.

This brings me to the glaring problems I have with the last several administrations; they don't seem to have ever read the Constitution, particularly the Bill of Rights.

I believe that the TSA security checkpoints at airports constitute an illegal search. (4th Ammendment)
I believe that the government has grossly abused the "Necessary and proper" clause of Article I while completely failing to carry out many of their ennumerated duties under that article.
I believe that both the Judicial and Executive branches of government wield more power than is Constitutional, more than is safe, and more than the founders intended.
I believe that most of our citizens, and almost all of our elected officials, forget the 9th Amendment and ignore the 10th.
I believe that as an adult citizen in good health I have certain duties and responsibilities to the United States. This includes serving in the military at need (I really should register with the Washington State Guard - yes, they're responsible for calling for volunteers, but things move fast in emergencies), voting, paying legal taxes (I pay the illegal ones too, though I'm not happy about it), etc.
I believe that the United States has a duty to protect its citizens, but it is not obligated to protect people who are not citizens, nor is it obligated to provide them social services no matter where they happen to live.

I believe that I have the right to sling my AR-15 over my shoulder, walk into a US Courthouse and politely request compensation for the violations of the security of my person and personnel effects by the TSA. It ain't gonna happen, but if anyone can show me what Constitutional basis a federal agent would have for stopping me, I'd really like to see it.

I also believe that the combination of a cold, 12-hour sudafed, and making 2D sketches to define 3D parts that are already released, is making me ramble on to very little point.

From the Almost Frontlines: Almost-Spring Ithra

This weekend was the Shire of Shittimwoode's "Almost Spring" Ithra. They do have a gift for naming things. :-)

Saturday morning I learned about Period Cartography, including the fact that through most of period in Europe there were three different groups keeping three different kinds of maps secret from the general populace and each other.

Saturday afternoon was Heraldry (names and devices), in which my opinion that all heralds are at least slightly nuts was fully confirmed ("bendy sinister"? "checkwise"?). However, it was fun (OK, I'm at least slightly nuts too) and I made some progress with my device. I'm now leaning towards:

Per fess argent and azure, on a phoenix gules a sword or, beneath a mullet sable.

In english: on a shield with the top half silver and the bottom half blue, a golden sword superimposed on a red phoenix (centered), with a black star at the top center of the shield.

Sunday morning was A Survey of Medieval Architecture, a direct companion to Castles and Fortifications that covers the civilian side of things (houses, churches, etc.). Did you know that the Romans used concrete, but it wasn't rediscovered until the Enlightenment?! Man those guys were good. Anyway, we actually used period methods to make a wooden truss, a brick arch (pre-made bricks), and we made a wattle and daub section about 8"x10" (cheated a little again; mixed in a bit of plaster to make it dry faster... and we didn't use any manure). We also played with linkin (sp?) logs and pre-cut spiral staircase sections. Doing the wattle and daub in particular really gave me a feel for something I hadn't fully understood before.

Sunday afternoon was Period Encampments, or "How to make your camp look period... even when it isn't." Although the class normally includes setting up a chunk of an SCA camp, they didn't get permission for this section, so that rather important part was skipped. :-(

Overall it was a very good Ithra, and it didn't even rain until Sunday afternoon!

Oh, and Happy Pi Day, everyone! I ate pie (and muffins and other round things) yesterday - did you?

Cohort!

OK, it is something like two years after I started, but I now have a complete Auxiliary Heavy Infantry Cohort for my 1/72 1:6 Roman Legion!

The cohort has six centuries, each with 12 troopers and a centurion, plus a command element with the prefect, a standard bearer, and a cornicen. All the figures are from HaT, mounted individually on flexible magnet bases from Litko, which in turn are on flexible steel unit trays (also Litko). I used Testors enamel paints.

Slow and Steady

It really does win the race in space!

http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/rocket-engine-mars-trip-100305.html

Strictly speaking, there isn't much "news" here, but its one of the better explanations of the importance of electric drive for spacecraft that I've seen - and puts the focus squarely on power sources, where it should be.

Of course, interplanetary travel is only half - possibly a third - of the battle. One certain problem is getting out of Earth's gravity well - one reason I'm such a supporter of space elevators. :-) One possible problem is the practicality of In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU is one of the Holy Grails of would-be Mars colonizers).

But to quote Robert Heinlein (as I so often do): once you get to orbit, you're halfway to anywhere. VASIMR looks like a good bet for the other half.

Doughnuts

What is it about doughnuts?

I find them all but irresistable, in many varieties. Maple bars in particular require an effort of will beyond even that required to resist sushi.

I know they're bad for me. There are many foods I prefer, some greatly, to eat.

But put doughnuts in front of me and I eat them.

Why?

Oath Keepers

I ran across this group: http://oathkeepers.org/oath/ on another site.

In brief, the group is oriented towards members of the military and law enforcement, reminding them that their oaths are sworn to the Constitution of the United States, not its government. They have issued a list of ten orders they will disobey in the event they are given (a quick scan; all ten orders look to me like clear violations of the US Constitution as written and ammended). Noteably, they will not disarm US citizens nor engage in unwarrented searches, arrests, or detentions.

This is one of those groups I'm ambiguous about. On the face of it, I wholeheartedly support their stated goals. I strongly suspect I'd be quite at home in any large assembly of such people, at least so long as the group stayed 'on topic.'

However, I'm wary as well. Such motives are used as comoflage by a particularly dangerous brand of extremist.

In the end, it comes down to timing. I have no doubt that if the US keeps going in the direction it is now there will come a time when our government will break the Constitution; it has certainly bent it almost out of recognition already! However I believe that the break has not happened yet, and also that it is not inevitable. And for the record, while the Assault Weapons Ban is high on my list of un-Constitutional legislation, the Patriot Act is much, much worse. The TSA (formed, you will note, by a Republican President) is more a violation of the rights of citizens than anything PBHO has done to date that I'm aware of.

So I don't want to connect myself to a group that believes the time has already come. However, I do feel the desire to support and spread the message.

Any thoughts?

From DC to Chicago...

Washington DC's handgun ban was struck down, and the next target on the tour of "look, just READ the US Constitution already!" is Chicago, which has a firearms restriction being challenged before the US Supreme court soon.

While they're thinking about Chicago, any chance they could hear a case on the legality of selling US senate seats to the highest bidder?