Lucky Seven!

The dow has closed down 777.68; not only is that three sevens, but the 6 and 8 average out to two more sevens! The reason the market went down is probably closely related to the $700 billion dollary bailout that failed to pass; if 12 of the "nays" had switched to "yea" the measure would have been approved by 217 to 216; more sevens! Don't forget that the mininum passing vote (assuming abstentions remained the same) would have been divisible by 7!

What a lucky day!

Edit: How'd I miss this? The Dow fell 6.98%, which easily rounds off to... 7.

If I had $700 Billion

I'd be rich!

OK, the Federal Government is prepared to spend about $2,300 for every person in the US on a bailout that may or may not work. Here's some other things we could do with the money:

1. Build 350 gigawatts of nuclear power generating stations. Palo Verde http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station cost a little under $6 billion to build three reactors that generate over 1 GW each. The ~100 GW we currently produce generates 20% of our electrical power, so this would put our nuclear power generation at 90% of our current electrical demands.

2. Build 7 space elevators. Dr. Bradley Edwards did a study and estimated the cost of an initial elevator at $20 billion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator_economics Let's assume he was low by a factor of 5 (not unheard of in R&D). We could lift 14 million kg per year into orbit with these and have a roughly ten-fold reduction in the cost per kilo lifted to orbit.

3. Build 80 nuclear powered aircraft carriers. The navy's CVN-21 program's first unit is expected to cost $8billion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_R._Ford_class_aircraft_carrier Let's say cost overruns on the first are compensated for somewhat by the economies of scale on later units. Related, a Virginia class SSN costs about $2.3 billion, a DDG-1000 will probably cost about $3 billion... you get the picture. We could buy an entire NAVY of several hundred ships for $700 billion.

4. Buy a year's worth of oil. We spend $650 billion/year on importing oil. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States THAT ought to cut gas prices!

What would you do with $700 billion dollars?

Presidential Debate #1

Due to a mistake on my part, I only saw the second half of the presidential debate.

What I saw looked to me like a tie. McCain was a little more specific and detailed, but I'd expect that from him on foreign policy. IMO, Obama met his expectations, or at least my expectations of him.

What did you think?

Grey's is back :-)

Spoilers!
Spoilers!
Spoilers!

Last night was the season premiere of Season 5 of Grey's Anatomy. Two hours of pretty good television and really bad commercials.

I really liked Dr. Hunt (the army doctor who showed up); I heard somewhere he's likely to be a regular and I hope that's true - I really liked the actor in Rome and from the few Army docs I've known he did a really good job with the part. Plus you've got to love someone who staples his own laceration shut. :-) I'm hoping he shows up in uniform again; I spotted the jump wings right off (my father had a set, after all), but I never got a good enough look at the badge below them to tell what it was. Anyway, even if he is in the 'Almost Airborne' division, I hope we see him again. I'm also hoping he's a captain, just for the connection to Rome. Maybe with a wife who was informed he'd been killed in Afganistan and an med tech who only thinks about women and booze... OK, maybe not.

The iceicle impalement, OTOH, just seemed over the top to me, and not in a good way. Fall down, whack the back of your head, fine. Get an injury from that? That would have been fine. Happen to be in exactly the right spot when a SHARP iceicle falls STRAIGHT DOWN (for those who haven't lived with iceicles, that isn't exactly normal) and STICKS?!

People getting injured by iceicles isn't unheard of, don't get me wrong, but it tends to be blunt trauma, not penetrating.

Anyway, thumbs up to Season 5 so far (I'm carrying your child... gotcha!).

On a lighter note

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/09/22/nasa.ducks/index.html

Rubber Ducky, you're so great
You track glaciers, they migrate!
Rubber Ducky, NASA needs mail from you...

Microsoft (Won't) Help

This is a combination of a plea for technical assistance and a complaint about Microsoft tech support.

I have Internet Explorer on my home computer. Up until two days ago, it worked fine. Now it won't open. I've tried the desktop icon, the start menu, the actual program in Program Files, double clicking and rightclick/open on html files on my computer, no luck. I get a bit of hourglass-and-cursor, then it goes back to the cursor. I've tried waiting for up to 10 minutes.

No other program I've tried (word, excel, acrobat, notepad, a couple of games) has any problems, although it does take longer than usual to open "my computer" and folders on my hard drive. They open, it just takes 30 seconds or a minute instead of a few seconds. I've been able to download updates for McAfee and windows media player, so it isn't my internet connection.

I run Windows XP Professional, Service Pack 3. I recently installed an update, but IE worked for a short while after the install & reboot. IE is version 6.something. I don't have any other browsers installed (something I will be fixing as soon as I can - anyone know if I can get firefox without needing a web browser?).

Repeated reboots have had no apparent effect.

Now the rant. After trying the things implied or stated above, I called microsoft tech support. After asking about 20 questions (name, zip code (?), phone number, email address, operating system and version, etc.) they finally got around to asking what was wrong. I gave them a somewhat shorter version of the above. The guy then asked for my windows licence, and noted that since it was a Compaq OEM they didn't support it for free. He then offered me the choice of internet support (I interjected that my problem was that I COULDN'T GET ON THE INTERNET; he seemed uninterested), transferring me to Compaq tech support, or Microsoft tech support for $59.

My thoughts went something like: "Well, you've filled me with confidence so far, with the whole 'I'm following a script so closely I'm not even listening to your problem', so I'm not interested in paying $59 just yet. "OK, transfer me to Compaq."

Ring! Ring! "Hi, welcome to [garbled] how can I help you?" Oh goodly, this one has a detectable accent, and let's just say it isn't from anywhere in the US.

Me: [Problem statement]

"OK [20 questions, oddly similar to the ones above.] Well, you have three options..."

Wait a minute, this guy transferred me to ANOTHER GUY AT HIS CALL CENTER, and he's giving me THE EXACT SAME OPTIONS I GOT A MINUTE AGO!

Me: "Ah, instead of transferring me to Compaq, can I get their phone number?" I somehow resisted the impulse to ask how the weather was in India and whether he'd had any training beyond Script Reading 101.

"Thank you for calling Hewlet Packard... please say 'desktop', 'laptop'..." Er. OK, I guess they just gave me the generic phone number, not specifically desktop support. After three rounds with the voice-pseudo-recognizing software I get as far as desktop support. But it doesn't want to hear about Internet Explorer, Compaq, or Windows XP. After hitting three dead ends I hung up.

So, world wide web, I'm begging anyone out there who might have a clue to please suggest things to me.

Things the World Needs

So, cars have horns. We use them for everything from warning people of danger to showing our support for picket lines as we pass.

And that's a problem, because if you hear a horn when you're driving past a picket line, is it someone showing support for the strike or someone about to hit you?

Cars need a second external audible signal; a whistle, or a chime, or some such, to indicate good things. "Thanks for letting me merge in!" "Nice bumper sticker!" "Chime if you love sushi!" This way the horn could be reserved for hazard warnings while still allowing us to express ourselves.

We all need a little more positive feedback in our lives; especially when stuck in traffic.

Why They're On Strike

http://www.thenewstribune.com/opinion/othervoices/story/484625.html

I really like the point that a company that does "systems integration" as its only skill is an all-overhead company. What value does that add? "We're really good at making things out of Lego bricks." Um. That's nice. Can't I make my own things out of Legos?

Boeing used to make the Legos, then put them together. So anyone who wanted to make their own toys had to figure out how to make Legos, and then put them together. Now Boeing is training other people how to make Legos, and... I guess just hoping no one will notice that anyone can put Legos together, not just Boeing.

A Somewhat Convenient Truth

http://www.petitionproject.org/gwdatabase/Article_HTML/Review_Article_HTML.html

I've seen quite a lot of pro/con debate on human-caused global warming; this article seems to absolutely flatten, at least to me, any possibility that CO2 from fossil fuels is responsible. A number of different perspectives are taken, and quite bit of data is presented in easy-to-understand formats.

This contains many things I'd never heard on either side of the debate, and answered many questions I'd had about what things are "normal" as well as what things come from models, inferred data, and explicit data.

The article transitions to a discussion of energy consumption by the US, and a discussion of the use of nuclear power to reverse our current energy imports.

I welcome any comments, criticisms, and questions.

From the Frontlines: Banner War

I only daytripped to Banner War, and aside from chatting with various people the only thing I did was fencing. We did four non-white scarves vs. two white scarves, and surprisingly managed to beat them both times. Rapier turnout was much lower than I expected, and a few people I'd really expected to see there didn't show.

Loot!

Yesterday evening I attended a fundraiser for the Snohomish County History Museum. They were having a wine tasting and a silent auction. The only wine I really liked was $30 for a rather small bottle, but the silent auction was really fun. I won a set of a SCUBA lessons, a bag for my fencing gear (I've been meaning to get one of those for over a year now), a couple of gift certificates for places I regularly go (at or below face value, yet), and a basket of stuff from the Future of Flight Museum.

I'm pretty psyked about the SCUBA lessons; I really enjoyed doing SCBA work in rescue class, but I've never done it underwater.

Subscriptions

While I feel I'm jumping on a bandwagon (and I hate doing that) I'm subscribing to a trio of blogs I read on a regular basis.

If you read this on a regular basis, give in to the peer pressure and subscribe!

... or don't.

However, this is the perfect time to remind me if you've got a blog so I can stick it on my subscription list and read it. :-)

From the Frontlines: Warren War X

Well, after that last post, the Dow's 500 point nose dive, and a frustrating day at work I'm having a hard time writing about this weekend.

However, it was great while I was living it, so I'm going to do a brief recap. Warren War occurs as Aquaterra and her allies attempt to resist and invasion from Canada, notably the Barony of Lion's Gate.

Rapier included a field battle (point to the northerners), a sheep-stealing battle (5 sheep in neutral territory, hold 3 after 20 minutes for a time-limit victory of capture all 5 for an immediate victory; Aquaterra managed an outright victory after 10 minutes), and a trail battle (narrow front with one sheep per side to defend, point to Aquaterra). Apparently the Aquaterrans really wanted mutton for dinner. :-) The overall Rapier War Point thus went to Aquaterra.

The Bardic championship was fun as usual, though my performance was rather dissapointing. Despite a stirring rendition of King Rorik the Brave, the first round was single elimination and I lost to a truly excellend poem filking Edgar Allen Poe's The Raven with the subject of Baldur's Gate, performed (and I think written) by Nicholas Forester. I made a brief appearance as a buy Bard, and got to tell the story I crafted for this event: The Rising of the Wheat. I'll post a rough draft version later in the week if I'm more in the mood. On the plus side, the bardic champion was one I bribed at the start of the contest to declare for Aquaterra (three bottles of Mike's Hard Lemonade well spent), so the Bardic War Point went to Aquaterra as well, even if I didn't win it myself.

A wonderful fire dance, conversation and banter with fun people, and appearing in a pre-court reading/acting of The Elves and the Shoemaker... as the shoemaker's wife, while a girl played the shoemaker.

It was a great event, and it seems a real shame that it had to be ruined by a really bad monday.

The Sun sets on the British

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,422661,00.html

Britian will now accept Sharia (Islamic law) in some cases, including domestic violence. In essence, Islamic men in Britain can now legally beat their female family members.

I am shocked. I am horrified. I am deeply afraid.

It appears that the lights are once more going out all over Europe. Will we see them rekindled in our time?

Oil #2

I should have been more clear in yesterday's idea: the money would come from us in the form of tax dollars, not at the pump.

This spawns into another idea: tax imported oil and use the money to subsidize domestic oil production.

These are, of course, variations on a theme, as is today's more complex idea:

Yesterday’s idea too radical? Let’s try this on for size:

The US Government will form a corporation, initially government controlled and sponsored. Call it Patriot Gas. This company will only be allowed to purchase gas made from domestic oil production (including non-conventional oil). It will be allowed to produce, refine, distribute, and sell gasoline and related products.

During the setup period (call it two years) Patriot Gas will build or buy gas stations from other companies, set up their distribution network, etc. During this period, the US government will subsidize them to the point where their price per gallon is the same as the average for the region the individual stations are in (use AAA data). It will also guarantee startup loans so they can purchase and build their infrastructure.

After the setup period, a weaning-off period will start (call it two more years). The subsidy will slowly be reduced to zero. This will, presumably, cause the price per gallon to be greater than that of competitors. An add campaign will emphasize that Patriot Gas is made in the USA and point out where foreign oil is coming from, and what its paying for. People like me will still buy gas there, since we’re willing to pay the extra money to know where its going. Others, of course, won’t.

However, one long-term guarantee will be in place: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will only buy oil from Patriot Gas (i.e., only domestic production will go into the SPR).

At the end of the weaning-off period, we’ll see if this country really wants to get off foreign oil.

Tell me what you think!

Let's really get off foreign oil

You're got to hand it to OPEC; they run a sweet racket. They engage in what the anti-trust department would define as price fixing in any other industry, but since they're not under US law they can get away with it.

I think its time we put our foot down.

Back in the 1980's, there was a great interest in the development of oil shale, and at least some in other non-conventional oil production techniques. That didn't work out because oil prices fell due to an increase in the production of conventional (well/pump) oil. The industry is hesitant to invest in capital setup for non-conventional oil processing now because OPEC could flood the market with cheap oil again any time they want to, rendering non-conventional oil uneconomical once again.

There are huge (centuries worth) reserves in the US and Canada of non-conventional oil. But right now we're sending money to the mid-east, and a lot of that money is then going to fund Islamic terrorists.

So, here's my proposal. Let's have some people sit down and figure out the current oil needs of the US (and Canada, if they want in on the deal). We then setup a government program that will subsidize domestic (ONLY) non-conventional oil production methods, to the point where they are able to economically supply the current US demand without any imported oil. Who pays for this? We do. I for one would be happy to pay double the current price of gas if it meant my money wasn't going to our "good friends" Saudi Arabia, etc. I'll even take up the burden of paying a share for those who can't afford it. I think there are a lot of other people out there who hate funding Islamic extremists. Let's put our money where our mouth is.

Now, if the US demand for oil rises we'll have to go back to importing the difference. This plan isn't designed to let our oil consumption get out of hand. There would have to be careful safeguards to prevent abuse. Nor does this plan fix anyone else's problems: we aren't going to fund Europe, or China, or pay companies to import oil shale-produced oil from some other country.

I'd also make higher car/truck fleet MPG standards part of the package; and make sure the language doesn't give special treatment to SUV's.

What do you think? Is the core idea good? How would you make it better? How much would you pay to know that your gas money is going to US companies, employing US citizens, instead of mideast oil barons?

Mr. President, we cannot allow a mine-shaft gap!

NPR this morning talked about a stunning insight: there has been a pattern of alternating bald and hairy men in the premiership of the USSR, carrying into today's Russia.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94340197

There's even a little song, and comments about the baldness gap.

Grand Theft Pizza Party!

I love humorous coincidences. Two of the headlines on Fox's website this morning:

Cops: Truck Driver Stole More Than 13 Tons of Frozen Pizza
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,418521,00.html

Police Find 312 Quarts of Moonshine in Truck Weaving on Highway
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,418523,00.html

Who else is thinking pizza and booze for everyone?

Crossing the Picket Line

I dislike even the idea of crossing a picket line, but SPEEA members are required to (until our contract is up, that is). So today I crossed the IAM line.

I find it interesting that many people (myself included) argued for Boeing to be chosen to build Air Force tankers partially because they would be built in the US, which is better. Boeing, however, does not seem to share that opinion when it comes to other planes it builds. Those are better designed and built overseas.

The logic escapes me, it really does.

Anyway, with outsourcing and sub-contracting being a major issue of this strike, and given Boeing's questionable "negotiating" tactics and the fact that their propaganda is more transparent than the USSR used to put out, I'm fully with the machinists on this one.

Strike! (Almost)

At what was for all practical purposes the last minute, Boeing asked IAM 751 to come back to the table. The IAM granted 48 hours for additional negotiation.

Frankly, if I were in charge of Boeing I'd have fired my negotiating team and brought in new people. While improving the contract is expensive, a strike is even more so. Some sources have estimated $100 million a DAY is lost when the IAM is on strike. I suppose not having to pay the people on strike saves a little, but last cycle (2005), the IAM got a bonus equal to about a month's pay when they signed the post-strike contract. So for a month Boeing paid its machinists to walk picket lines instead of building planes. Also, the way things are structed, while the union can "reject" the proposed contract with a simple majority, it takes a two-thirds majority to strike. If that two-thirds majority is achieved, the contract is accepted by default! Boeing only needs to get 34% of the machinests to vote for the contract. Really, how hard can that be?

Apparently, for the current team, pretty hard. Some 87% of the machinests voted to strike this time around, and IIRC a similarly large majority voted to strike in 2005.

Either the executives who hold the pursestrings and/or the negotiation team are, in my opinion, incompetent. Boeing is sitting on a SEVEN YEAR backlog of plane orders, the "global supply chain" for the 787 has proven to be a disaster with the "partners" causing a year delay in the program while Boeing (IAM) mechanics do their work, and we're paying a company to ship parts off-site so they can ship them back again. Oh, the last is copycatting techniques we already use internally! It should be really trivial for Boeing to offer the union gaurantees on outsourcing, and a good contract overall.

Add in allegations of illegal negotiating practices by Boeing, and I think some people up top need to be kicked into the real world.

Probably they're too busy checking their stock options and multi-million dollar pensions.

Who turned the Sun off?

Apparently the Sun has had a lot fewer sunspots this year than it normally has in recent years as we move into a solar minimum, including none (or possibly one, depending on who you talk to) in the month of August. While at 43 days that's not much more than the 42 day spotless period twelve years ago (one solar cycle ago), its the first spotless calendar month in 50 or 100 years (again depends on that debatable spot - out, damn spot!).

I guess Sol decided it was summer vacation time, or maybe that measles shot finally worked...

Hiking

Monday I went hiking at Wallace Falls, a state park about half an hour east of Everett. Several hours of hiking was good, several hours stuck in traffic on the way home was not.

Oh well, you can't win them all.