Monday, August 11, 2008

Or maybe more like the Sudetenland

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,401243,00.html

Russia now seems to have launched a general offensive against Georgia (again, that's the country folks). Aside from the US airlifting Georgia's Iraq contingent back to their own country, international response seems to be something along the lines of "Bad, bad Russia!" I can't help thinking that the Georgians are probably feeling like the Czechs did in 1938.

The article notes some 20,000 Russian troops and 500 tanks committed. If they're still using Soviet-era TO&E's, that's about five tank regiments, which would normally make me think a corp with two motorized and one tank division, but the troop count seems low for that. If "tanks" mean "tanks and IFV's" as it so often does in the news, that's about five mechanized regiments; one heavy division or two understrength ones (much more in line with the stated troop strength). In any case, this is a serious committment of forces. If NATO wanted to help Georgia, we'd probably need to put a heavy brigade combat team on the ground to stop them.

Georgia, per wikipedia, has about 20,000 men in their ground forces, with a single armored battalion. Most of their gear is 2nd line soviet issue, putting them about two generations behind the current Russian troops. Wikipedia claims some 360 tanks (actual tanks). My last reliable information on Russia gave them about 14,000 although only 4,000 of those were 1st line equipment. As of 2002 the quality of the Russian ground forces was one step above abysmal, but they've come a long ways in the last half-decade.

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